Monday, October 5, 2009

Swiss Franc May Rise to 1.0015, Soc Gen Says: Forex Technical Analysis

Oct. 5 2009  -- The Swiss franc may climb 3 percent against the dollar should it close at less than 1.0325 today,
according to Societe Generale SA, citing technical indicators.

The currency may strengthen “medium term” to the July 2008 high of 1.0015 per dollar should it first appreciate
through so-called resistance levels of 1.0280 and then 1.0185, the September 2009 high, strategists including Hugues Naka and
Fabien Manac’h wrote today in a report, citing Fibonacci charts.Resistance is a level where sell orders may be clustered.

“This is a short-term bearish signal” for the dollar, the analysts said. The dollar-franc rate “should then extend its
medium-term downtrend” to the July 2008 low of 1.0015.The franc was little changed at 1.0341 per dollar, from
1.0350 francs at the end of last week.

The currency gained 3.3 percent against the dollar this year even after the Swiss National Bank began selling the franc
on March 12 to keep it from strengthening, primarily against the euro. It fell 1.1 percent versus the common European currency in
the period.

SNB Governing Board member Thomas Jordan said on Sept. 25 that policy makers will act “with full force” to avoid an
appreciation of the franc against the euro.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a
security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci charts are based on the theory that securities tend to rise or fall by
specific percentages after reaching a new high or low.

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